What Happens Next

The Great Fragmentation: Why Globalisation is Not Dying but Splitting

The era of frictionless trade is over. As geopolitics reclaim primacy over economics, the world is fracturing into two distinct, competing spheres. It is a transition from efficiency to resilience that changes the price of everything.

The Invisible Cartel: Why the Commodities Supercycle Favours Logic over Luck

As the West races to electrify and the East expands its industrial base, the global scramble for raw materials is creating a new hierarchy of power. The real victors are not the miners, but the logistical bottlenecks.

The Balkan Chokepoint: Why 2025 Points to the Drina

While global headlines focus on the Pacific and the Levant, a structural convergence of energy insecurity, ethnic realignment, and Russian diversionary tactics has made the Western Balkans the world’s most dangerous flashpoint for 2025.

The Great Recalibration: Three Global Blueprints for 2030

The post-Cold War consensus has dissolved. As the era of cheap capital and unchallenged American primacy ends, three distinct structural orders are emerging to define the next decade of power, trade, and survival.

The Price of Sovereignty: Three Scenarios for the Taiwan Strait

Global markets treat a Taiwan conflict as a tail risk, but the structural incentives for escalation are accelerating. We analyse the economic and geopolitical costs of blockade, decapitation, and the long-term status quo.

The Sovereign Paradox: Why the Next Crisis Will Not Be a Bank Run

The global financial system has shifted from private risk to public liability. As central banks struggle to wind down balance sheets, the next systemic shock will emerge from the very institutions designed to prevent it: sovereign bond mark

Unpriced Shocks: The Fragility of the Shadow Financial Buffer

Geopolitical analysis currently fixates on visible kinetic conflicts. Yet the greatest systemic risk lies in the invisible nexus of private credit, offshore dollar liquidity, and the weaponisation of insurance corridors in global trade.

The Fragmentation Horizon: A 12-Month Global Power Forecast

As the post-Cold War consensus dissolves, the next twelve months will be defined by strategic decoupling, the weaponisation of energy transitions, and a violent return to geographic reality. Here is where the map breaks next.

Biden administration approves F35 sale to the UAE: Does this represent a forecast for strong US-UAE relations?

Tunisia launches first indigenous satellite into space: Does this highlight Tunisia’s technological ambitions?

EU foreign policy chief praises Turkey: What has led to the positive development of EU-Turkey ties in recent months?

Major breakthrough in Libya as parliament approves interim government: Why are there still worries about its future?

Libya’s interim PM submits cabinet proposal to parliament: Will the interim government succeed in unifying Libya?

2021 Forecast: Europe – Will The EU Collapse?

In 2021, Europe will face challenges both familiar and unforeseen. The future of the old continent will to a large extent depend on the evolving global constellation of forces, but also on the way the European Union chooses to position itse

2021 Forecast: Asia – Will Asia Lead The World?

In the Chinese Zodiac, 2021 is the Year of the Ox — considered productive for those who are hardworking and methodical and fully feel the weight of their responsibilities. Seven of the 14 major markets in Asia Pacific – China, Taiwan, Vietn

2021 Forecast: Africa – Neocolonialism At Its Worst

On January 1, 2021, African countries began officially trading under a new continent-wide free trade area. The African Continental Free Trade Area aims to bring together 1.3 billion people in a $3.4 trillion economic bloc that will be the l

Will the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq go to war with the PKK?

Erdogan announces huge gas discovery: Is this the catalyst to Turkey becoming a superpower?

5 countries that could benefit from COVID-19

5 countries that could benefit from COVID-19 Global recession, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, is not hitting all countries equally. Sovereign nations, as well as those that had a good starting point, will recover much easier than those th

5 countries that could benefit from COVID-19

Global recession, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, is not hitting all countries equally. Sovereign nations, as well as those that had a good starting point, will recover much easier than those that heavily depend on the global trade and mon

The World after Covid-19

Fear and panic have paralysed the world. The Global economy has literally been shut down and life itself has been put on hold. There is only one news that dominates all the media. However, behind the scenes, major global powers seem to have

Pakistan is trying to prevent itself from moving into China’s shadow

China-Pakistan economic corridor will amplify Chinese influence on Pakistan China’s belt road initiative has long been forecasted as a project that would give the superpower complete geopolitical and economic dominance in Asia, and its most

How Israel has gained an alliance with the Arab world

The importance of Saudi Arabia and Egypt Israel’s strengthening relationship with Saudi Arabia has built the basis for establishing behind the scenes relations with other Gulf nations, and the arab world as a whole. Saudi Arabia, along with

Is power and resource competition a threat to Antarctica?