Intelligence
Forecasts
41 reports in this category.
The Great Fragmentation: Why Globalisation is Not Dying but Splitting
The era of frictionless trade is over. As geopolitics reclaim primacy over economics, the world is fracturing into two distinct, competing spheres. It is a transition from efficiency to resilience that changes the price of everything.
15 Nov 2025
The Invisible Cartel: Why the Commodities Supercycle Favours Logic over Luck
As the West races to electrify and the East expands its industrial base, the global scramble for raw materials is creating a new hierarchy of power. The real victors are not the miners, but the logistical bottlenecks.
15 Jul 2025
The Balkan Chokepoint: Why 2025 Points to the Drina
While global headlines focus on the Pacific and the Levant, a structural convergence of energy insecurity, ethnic realignment, and Russian diversionary tactics has made the Western Balkans the world’s most dangerous flashpoint for 2025.
15 Mar 2025
The Great Recalibration: Three Global Blueprints for 2030
The post-Cold War consensus has dissolved. As the era of cheap capital and unchallenged American primacy ends, three distinct structural orders are emerging to define the next decade of power, trade, and survival.
15 Nov 2024
The Price of Sovereignty: Three Scenarios for the Taiwan Strait
Global markets treat a Taiwan conflict as a tail risk, but the structural incentives for escalation are accelerating. We analyse the economic and geopolitical costs of blockade, decapitation, and the long-term status quo.
15 Jul 2024
The Sovereign Paradox: Why the Next Crisis Will Not Be a Bank Run
The global financial system has shifted from private risk to public liability. As central banks struggle to wind down balance sheets, the next systemic shock will emerge from the very institutions designed to prevent it: sovereign bond markets.
15 Mar 2024
Unpriced Shocks: The Fragility of the Shadow Financial Buffer
Geopolitical analysis currently fixates on visible kinetic conflicts. Yet the greatest systemic risk lies in the invisible nexus of private credit, offshore dollar liquidity, and the weaponisation of insurance corridors in global trade.
15 Nov 2023
The Fragmentation Horizon: A 12-Month Global Power Forecast
As the post-Cold War consensus dissolves, the next twelve months will be defined by strategic decoupling, the weaponisation of energy transitions, and a violent return to geographic reality. Here is where the map breaks next.
15 Jul 2023
Biden administration approves F35 sale to the UAE: Does this represent a forecast for strong US-UAE relations?
14 Apr 2021
Tunisia launches first indigenous satellite into space: Does this highlight Tunisia’s technological ambitions?
26 Mar 2021
EU foreign policy chief praises Turkey: What has led to the positive development of EU-Turkey ties in recent months?
19 Mar 2021
Major breakthrough in Libya as parliament approves interim government: Why are there still worries about its future?
11 Mar 2021
Libya’s interim PM submits cabinet proposal to parliament: Will the interim government succeed in unifying Libya?
5 Mar 2021
2021 Forecast: Europe – Will The EU Collapse?
In 2021, Europe will face challenges both familiar and unforeseen. The future of the old continent will to a large extent depend on the evolving global constellation of forces, but also on the way the European Union chooses to position itself.
31 Jan 2021
2021 Forecast: Asia – Will Asia Lead The World?
In the Chinese Zodiac, 2021 is the Year of the Ox — considered productive for those who are hardworking and methodical and fully feel the weight of their responsibilities. Seven of the 14 major markets in Asia Pacific – China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand, Australia, and New Zealand – representing 1.6 billion people or 40 percent of the regional total, are expected to recover faster than the rest of the world.
31 Jan 2021
2021 Forecast: Africa – Neocolonialism At Its Worst
On January 1, 2021, African countries began officially trading under a new continent-wide free trade area. The African Continental Free Trade Area aims to bring together 1.3 billion people in a $3.4 trillion economic bloc that will be the largest free trade area since the establishment of the World Trade Organization.
31 Jan 2021
Will the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq go to war with the PKK?
4 Dec 2020
Erdogan announces huge gas discovery: Is this the catalyst to Turkey becoming a superpower?
24 Aug 2020