Will security concerns block economic cooperation between Pakistan and the Taliban?

Pakistan and Taliban officials meet

A senior Pakistani delegation has visited Afghanistan’s capital for talks with Taliban officials, days after the closure of their busiest border crossing raised tensions between the two countries.

Pakistani Defence Minister Khwaja Asif was joined on Wednesday by other top officials – including Lieutenant General Nadeem Anjum, the director general of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency, or ISI – in their meeting with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Afghanistan acting deputy prime minister for economic affairs, in Kabul.

The visit comes as thousands of trucks remained stranded at the Torkham border crossing following the Taliban’s closing of the key gateway on February 19. Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari also has warned that the use of Afghan soil by militants from the Pakistani Taliban, known as Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), is posing a threat to Islamabad.

In a statement, Baradar’s office said the officials discussed economic cooperation, regional connectivity, trade and their countries’ relations.

Sources at Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs told Al Jazeera on Monday that they were not informed by their Afghan counterparts why the border point, the busiest transit route for travellers and trade between the two neighbours, had been closed.

“There is an understanding reached at the highest level that border crossings will not be closed by either side,” a diplomatic source said. “We will further comment on this development once we are approached by the Afghan interim authorities in Kabul.”

Baradar said in the statement that political and security concerns should not affect business or economic matters.

“Pakistan and Afghanistan are neighbours and should get along well,” he said. “The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan emphasizes the development of commercial and economic ties with Pakistan as they are in the interest of both countries.”

Security concerns remain significant

Despite the positive comments during the meeting and the downplaying of the impact these security concerns can have on developing economic cooperation, the fact remains that this has been the main roadblock against strengthening ties between Pakistan and the Taliban since its takeover of Afghanistan.

The Pakistani Taliban’s late January attack in Peshawar, the capital of Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, claimed the lives of more than 100 worshipping at a police compound mosque. The bombing was claimed by a faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP, also known as the Pakistani Taliban) initially, but later denied by the TTP’s central leadership. It was the group’s deadliest attack since its 2021 resurgence after the Afghan Taliban took power in Afghanistan. As Pakistan struggles with a major economic crisis, the fallout from the deadly floods of last fall and an ever-turbulent political scene, the TTP’s growing threat presents yet another challenge for the struggling nation. A threat that must be dealt with in order to ensure security in the country and consequently a chance of economic recovery.

The TTP’s escalating campaign of violence is a function of its growing political and material strength — reflected in its political cohesion, expanding cadre of trained fighters, suicide bombers, weapons and equipment. Much of the TTP’s political leadership and capability is based in Afghanistan. In Pakistan, the TTP has regained some territorial influence in southern districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, like South Waziristan, North Waziristan, Tank, Bannu and Lakki Marwat. The TTP is able to fundraise through extortion inside Pakistan as well as in Afghanistan — across provinces, there are fundraising drives for the group’s so-called jihad.

Many believe that the Afghan Taliban remain very supportive of the TTP and are providing the group with a permissive safe haven. The TTP also has a lot of popular support in Afghanistan, where both Taliban and non-Taliban constituencies get behind the TTP due to a fervent dislike for Pakistan.

A handful of Taliban leaders, in particular Taliban Interior Minister Siraj Haqqani, have restrained the TTP on Pakistani requests on occasion. Yet the balance of opinion within the Taliban is strongly in favor of the TTP and its campaign. In particular, Taliban Amir Hibatullah Akhundzada agrees with the TTP that Pakistani system is “un-Islamic.”

At this moment, the Afghan Taliban appear unlikely to shift their strategic calculus on providing support to the TTP. In the weeks prior and days after the attack, their public messaging has been almost defiant, offering the weakest of condemnations and painting Pakistan as ultimately responsible for militancy within its borders. Speaking to a gathering in Kabul two days after the attack, the Taliban’s acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, warned Pakistan against “pointing fingers” or “sowing the seeds of enmity.”

This undiplomatic rhetoric underscores the Taliban’s determination to continue supporting the TTP, even in the face of intensified pressure from Pakistan. In January, Taliban security officials leaked a memo to local press that offered a description of training camps allegedly based in Pakistan and supported by the Pakistani security establishment, where thousands of Islamic State fighters were preparing to attack Afghanistan. In effect, the Taliban’s response to being confronted about their support for TTP has been to level counteraccusations — which does not signal an impending shift away from that support.

The state of both economies

Although the Taliban at this moment remains defiant and unwilling to change course in its attitude towards the TTP, the increasingly dire economic situation in the country could force it to compromise, in order to establish economic cooperation with its neighbor. The recent meeting points towards such a possibility.