Is Armenia shifting from Russia to the US?

Armenia’s strong ties with Russia

Russia for many years has been seen as Armenia’s main backer geopolitically and militarily, often seen as its main supporter in its conflict with Azerbaijan with whom Russia maintains cooler ties, and is backed by Turkiye. Russia is Armenia’s main supplier of military equipment.

Despite this, Russia has attempted to maintain a mediator role in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno Karabakh. This is also due to the growth of Russian economic ties with Azerbaijan in recent years, and more recently, as an attempt to curb Turkey’s growing influence in the region. However, when violence reignited between Armenia and Azerbaijan last week, the former found that Russia was unable to support it in any form, due to its involvement in the invasion of Ukraine. Russian equipment also failed to stop Turkish and Israeli drones belonging to Azerbaijan in the 2021 Karabakh war, leading to a decisive Azeri victory. This has led Armenia to loose hope in Russia and its capability to support it in the face of the Azerbaijani threat.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that despite the Ukraine conflict, Moscow had enough resources to mediate in a conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan after a series of border skirmishes.

The fighting ended in a ceasefire two days ago after more than 200 people were killed in fighting linked to a decades-old struggle over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Both sides blame each other for the deadliest clashes between them since a six-week war over Karabakh in 2020 left thousands dead. Asked whether Russia had the resources to maintain its influence in the region given Moscow’s focus on the conflict in Ukraine, he replied: “As you can see, there are enough.”

But in a sign of potential challenges, a senior Armenian official expressed unhappiness with the response of a Russian-led military alliance to Yerevan’s request for help, Interfax news agency reported.

Armenia asked the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) to intervene, but so far it has just sent a fact-finding team to the region.

“We are very dissatisfied, of course. The expectations we had were not justified,” parliamentary speaker Alen Simonyan told national television, likening the CSTO to a pistol that did not shoot bullets, Interfax said.

Noting Armenia also had a treaty on mutual assistance with Russia, he said “we expect more tangible steps from our Russian partners, not just statements or half words.”

Putin held a phone call with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Friday to discuss the clashes and Pashinyan also talked to French President Emmanuel Macron and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Yerevan said.

Russia appears to be attempting to maintain its foothold in the conflict, as Armenia and Russia have agreed on joint steps to stabilise the situation along Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan after deadly overnight clashes, officials in Yerevan said.

Armenia’s defence minister Suren Papikyan said he spoke with his counterpart Sergei Shoigu on Tuesday and they both “agreed to take necessary steps to stabilise the situation”.

Pelosi visit and support to Armenia

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi delivered remarks in Armenia on Sunday to express support for the nation in the wake of deadly clashes with neighboring Azerbaijan.

In a press conference, Pelosi strongly condemned “illegal and deadly attacks by Azerbaijan” and added that the violence “threatens prospects for a much-needed peace agreement.” She said the U.S. is watching the situation closely and continues to support a negotiated settlement.

Pelosi said it was clear the border fighting was triggered by Azeri assaults on Armenia and the chronology of the conflict should be clarified.

“We strongly condemn those attacks,” Pelosi said. “This was initiated by the Azeris and there has to be recognition of that.”

The United States, Pelosi said, was listening to Armenia about what its defence needs were and said Washington wanted to support the country in what she cast as “a global struggle between democracy and autocracy”.

Azerbaijan on Sunday scolded Pelosi for saying that Baku had started a border conflict with Armenia, saying the “unsubstantiated and unfair” remarks were a serious blow to peace efforts.

“The unsubstantiated and unfair accusations levelled by Pelosi against Azerbaijan are unacceptable,” the foreign ministry said in a statement. “Pelosi is known as a pro-Armenian politician.”

“This is a serious blow to the efforts to normalise relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev in a call on Sunday to keep to a ceasefire agreed with Armenia after violence.

“He (Blinken) urged President Aliyev to adhere to the ceasefire, disengage military forces, and work to resolve all outstanding issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan through peaceful negotiations,” State Department Spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement following a call between the two officials.

Many believe that Pelosi’s visit went against US interests and harmed positive relations between the US and Azerbaijan. However, we could be seeing an Armenian shift away from Russia, and the US could attempt to fill the gap.

Is Armenia shifting from Russia to the US?

It appears that Armenia has almost entirely lost hope in Russia as an ally in its conflict with Azerbaijan, and has thus been attempting bring the US into the mix.

“Under the influence of Russia, this conflict was localized. I hope this continues to be the case,” Putin told reporters after a regional summit in Uzbekistan.

Asked whether Russia had the resources to maintain its influence in the region given Moscow’s focus on the conflict in Ukraine, he replied: “As you can see, there are enough.”