Why has Saudi Arabia established a mission to Palestine in Jerusalem?
Can Lebanon avoid an imminent economic and political collapse?
Lebanon’s critical situation
Lebanon is days away from a “social explosion” as the country’s economic disaster worsens, caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab said in a meeting with ambassadors and diplomats on Tuesday, the state news agency NNA reported.
“Lebanon is a few days away from the social explosion. The Lebanese are facing this dark fate alone,” Diab said.
Diab appealed for regional and international leaders to help rescue Lebanon from a crisis that has seen the local currency lose 90% of its value and left 77% of households without enough food, according to the United Nations.
Lebanon’s population now spend hours in long lines at gas stations trying to buy fuel, as residents struggle with power outages of up to 22 hours a day and severe medical shortages.
“I am calling on kings, princes, presidents and leaders of our friendly countries, and I am calling on the United Nations and all international organizations … to help rescue Lebanon from its demise,” Diab told the ambassadors.
Diab has been serving in a caretaker capacity since resigning in the wake of the catastrophic Beirut port explosion on August 4, 2020. Since then, fractious sectarian politicians have been unable to agree on a new government. Diab also said only a new cabinet could restart talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“This government does not have the right to resume negotiations with the IMF to implement the recovery plan set by the cabinet, for this entails obligations on the next government that it may not endorse,” he said, according to Reuters.
The World Bank has called Lebanon’s crisis one of the worst depressions of modern history. The currency has lost more than 90% of its value and more than half the population has been propelled into poverty.
The causes of this catastrophe
The European Union’s foreign policy chief told Lebanon’s leaders last month they were to blame for the political and economic crisis and some could face sanctions if they continue to obstruct steps to form a new government and implement reform.
Diab noted repeated calls for assistance to be linked to reform, but said “the siege imposed” on Lebanon was not affecting the corrupt — an apparent reference to politicians.
He said Lebanese were running out patience and “linking Lebanon’s assistance to the formation of a new government has become a threat to the lives of the Lebanese and to the Lebanese entity.”
Diab has been serving in a caretaker capacity since resigning in the wake of the catastrophic Aug. 4 Beirut port explosion. Since then, fractious sectarian politicians have been unable to agree on a new government.
Donors have long demanded reforms to stamp out state corruption and waste – widely seen as root causes of the crisis.
The French ambassador has rebuked Lebanon’s prime minister for saying the country is under siege and blamed years of “mismanagement and inaction” by Lebanese leaders for its economic collapse.
French Ambassador to Lebanon Anne Grillo was speaking on Tuesday in response to a speech by caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab, who told envoys that a siege had been imposed on the country and warned of imminent social unrest.
In a recording of her comments circulated by the French embassy on Wednesday, Grillo blamed Lebanon’s “political class” for the downfall.
“But what is frightening, Mr Prime Minister, is that today this brutal collapse … is the deliberate result of mismanagement and inaction for years,” she said.
“It is not the result of an external siege. It is the result of your own responsibilities, all of you, for years, of the political class. This is the reality.”
Donors have long demanded reforms to stamp out state corruption and waste – widely seen as root causes of the crisis.
Can Lebanon avoid collapse?
Both Grillo and the U.S. ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea are travelling to Saudi Arabia for meetings on the situation in Lebanon with Saudi officials on Thursday, statements by the two embassies said.
The gathering comes after the U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s trilateral meeting on Lebanon with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud on the sidelines of the G-20 conference on June 29.
Thursday’s meeting in Saudi Arabia will include a discussion on aid to the Lebanese Armed Forces and Internal Security Forces.
Grillo noted that France, with the backing of other powers, had organised two conferences on Lebanon since the Aug. 4 explosion and was working on a third.
“France and many partner countries around this table have not waited for this call to help Lebanon,” said Grillo, adding that last year Paris extended $100 million in direct assistance to the Lebanese people.
Though Diab’s government is serving in a caretaker capacity, she said it could take steps including implementing a social safety net with World Bank financing.
The country’s population, which includes civilians with high levels of weapon ownership, a plethora of militant groups, and warlords from the days of the civil war, could further erupt into violence as actors compete for influence and control of the dwindling resources. Currently, political actors in Palestinian refugee camps, for example, such as Fatah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Rashidieh camp, still have the authority as power brokers and peacekeepers. That said, any shortage of aid, such as the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), could tip the scales as desperation stirs violence. The same balance could also be tipped in the wider population with now more than half living below the poverty line, and with no end to the crisis in sight, further instability is to be expected throughout July and August.
